Using MinRight's Analytics to Spot When a Well Is Declining
Every oil and gas well produces less over time. It's a fact of physics. The pressure in the reservoir drops, the flow rate decreases, and the royalty checks get smaller. This is called decline, and it's normal. But there's a difference between normal decline and something that deserves attention.
What Normal Decline Looks Like
A new well typically has its highest production in the first year. After that, production drops quickly at first and then levels off into a longer, slower decline. A well that made 500 barrels of oil per day in month one might make 200 barrels by month twelve and 100 barrels by month thirty-six.
In MinRight's analytics dashboard, this shows up as a downward trend in your revenue chart. If you're looking at a single well over two or three years, a gradual decline is expected.
What to Watch For
While gradual decline is normal, there are situations worth noticing:
Sudden drops. If a well's production falls sharply in a single month, it could mean the well was shut in for maintenance, had a mechanical failure, or the operator changed something. Check your check stub for that month. If production volume dropped to zero or near-zero, something happened beyond normal decline.
Faster-than-expected decline. If a well is declining faster than similar wells in the area, it might indicate a problem with the completion, the reservoir, or the operator's management. This is harder to spot without industry data, but tracking your own production numbers over time gives you a baseline.
Flat production followed by a drop. Some wells maintain fairly steady production for a period and then drop off. This can happen when artificial lift equipment (like a pump jack) fails, or when a secondary recovery program (like a waterflood) loses effectiveness.
Increasing deductions with decreasing production. If your gross revenue is dropping but deductions are staying the same or increasing, your net payment shrinks faster than production alone would suggest. Compare the deduction trends to the revenue trends in your analytics.
How to Use MinRight's Charts
MinRight's analytics dashboard lets you view revenue over different time ranges: monthly, year-to-date, one year, three years, five years, and all-time. For spotting decline:
- Use the one-year view to see recent trends and seasonal variations
- Use the three-year or five-year view to see the longer decline curve
- Switch between bar and line charts to see the shape of the trend more clearly
- Look at production volumes (oil, gas, NGL) alongside revenue to separate price effects from volume effects
If revenue dropped but production stayed flat, it's a price issue. If production dropped but prices held, it's a well issue.
What You Can Do About It
As a royalty owner, you don't control well operations. But understanding decline helps you:
- Set realistic expectations for future income
- Plan for reduced revenue in your personal budget
- Ask informed questions when you call the operator
- Evaluate lease offers more accurately (a declining well means leasing new acreage nearby may be less valuable)
- Assess whether to sell. Some owners choose to sell mineral interests in declining wells while they still have value
The Bigger Picture
Decline doesn't mean a well is worthless. Many wells produce for 20, 30, or even 50 years at lower rates. The checks get smaller, but they keep coming. Tracking the trend over time helps you understand where each well is in its lifecycle and what your mineral portfolio looks like as a whole.